Global soccer ELO forecasts

Real-data win/draw/loss probabilities from ESPN public soccer endpoints. Current scope is the top European leagues — Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Primeira Liga.

Completed matches
1110
Brier
0.173
Accuracy
46.0%

Latest rated matches

Atalanta 31.7% / 41.1% / 27.2% Napoli
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
Torino 35.6% / 40.7% / 23.7% Cagliari
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
AS Roma 38.0% / 40.2% / 21.7% Juventus
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
Fiorentina 33.9% / 40.9% / 25.2% Bologna
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
Sassuolo 33.6% / 40.9% / 25.4% Parma
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
Lecce 20.3% / 39.8% / 39.8% Internazionale
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
Frosinone 28.4% / 41.2% / 30.5% Lazio
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0
AC Milan 33.3% / 41.0% / 25.7% Como
2026-12-20 · Italian Serie A · final 0-0

Top ELO ratings

  1. 1. Bayern Munich2022
  2. 2. Sporting CP2019
  3. 3. Barcelona1994
  4. 4. Benfica1978
  5. 5. FC Porto1960

Team names resolved from ESPN. ELO + Glicko model with a Davidson draw term over completed matches.